Card Counting in Australia

Introduction | Brief Overview | Card Counting Legalities (Precedents) | Counter Measures | Profit Analysis | Sensitivity Analysis (%profit) | Conclusion |Bibliography | Blackjack Simulation- Experiment- December 1990 | Experiment Conclusion |

According to Arnold Snyder the profit potential of any Blackjack game may be determined by a simple formula, which may be referred to as the “Blackjack Formula”.

This may be useful as a very rough guide to determining the potential profitability of a Blackjack game. “Very rough” as it lacks the true rigour of the formal mathematical analysis which, for example, Peter Griffin would apply.

The formula is:
% profit = BA + PA + RA + SA 

BA = Betting Advantage
PA = Playing Advantage
RA = Rule Advantage
SA = Starting Advantage

The starting advantage is the advantage off the top of the deck. This is also what the long run expectation would be playing basic strategy, employing no count for either betting or playing purposes. There are two factors to take into consideration in determining the starting advantage, the number of decks in play, and the rule variations of the game.

The playing advantage is the percentage of profit which may be realised by altering play from basic strategy. The variables taken into account in computing the playing advantage are, the number of decks in play, the percentage of the cards being dealt out, and the playing efficiency of the system being used.

The betting advantage is dependent on the following four variables:-

1. The number of decks in play
2. The percentage being dealt out
3. The betting spread used and
4. The betting correlation of the system being used.

The betting spread is the ratio of the lowest bet to the highest bet. The betting correlation of a system is the efficiency of that system in determining advantage for betting purposes.

Rule advantage considers the effect of different rule variations. Variables considered are, percent dealt, number of units of high bet, number of decks and sum of effects of rule variations.

The % profit is therefore dependant on a large number of variables. Shown below is a calculation of the % profit for one counting system given set circumstances:-

Blackjack Formula