Card Counting in Australia

Introduction | Brief Overview | Card Counting Legalities (Precedents) | Counter Measures | Profit Analysis | Sensitivity Analysis (%profit) | Conclusion |Bibliography | Blackjack Simulation- Experiment- December 1990 | Experiment Conclusion |

Blackjack, unlike most other casino games, is a game which involves varying degrees of skill depending upon an individual player’s competence. This is due in large part to the fact that the probabilities associated with the game vary whenever a card is removed from the shoe, and that players may vary their play accordingly.

This really is a direct contrast to other casino games which have a constant in-built house percentage. For example, on single zero Roulette where each spin is an independent event, it is of no concern to the player that, for example, 15 blacks have been spun consecutively, the odds of black being spun again are still 18-19, ie, fractionally less than even money. Therefore, there is no such thing as a good or bad Roulette player, only lucky or unlucky players in the short term. In the long-term, if measured over a considerable period of time, the player should lose 2.70% of his turnover on Roulette. The house percentage on most casino games is between 1 and 28%, with table games (excepting Blackjack) averaging around 4% and Keno being around 26% on average.

With the use of good basic strategy at Blackjack, however, the house percentage fluctuates, rarely to a large extent, between approximately +3 and -3 percent.

This, of course, means that if a player could determine when the house percentage was negative and only place bets under those circumstances or greater sized bets, then over a long period of time that player would win. The amount won would be determined by the extent of the player’s advantage related to the amount of turnover from that player.

This system of play has been developed and is called “card counting”. The development of card counting was pioneered in America, utilising computers and software development for the simulation and analysis of Blackjack play.

This determined that the house percentage was directly related to the relationship of high cards (10,J,Q,K,A) to low cards (2,3,4,5,6) and that when this relationship showed an increase in the number of high cards in the remaining decks then the house percentage decreased. Such a deck is said to be 10 rich and in favour of the player.

To determine whether a deck is ten rich or not various systems have been developed with varying degrees of complexity and efficiency. A simple yet effective method is the Braun Plus Minus Count. In this count system the cards 10,J,Q,K and Ace are assigned a value of -1 with the cards of low value (2,3,4,5, and 6) being assigned a value of +1. The cards 7, 8 and 9 are prescribed no value.