Card Counting in Australia

Introduction | Brief Overview | Card Counting Legalities (Precedents) | Counter Measures | Profit Analysis | Sensitivity Analysis (%profit) | Conclusion |Bibliography | Blackjack Simulation- Experiment- December 1990 | Experiment Conclusion |

When reviewing this table it is advisable to be conservative in approximating the value of the maximum unit, this is particularly true in multi-deck games. Due to the diminishing frequency with which progressively higher “true” counts occur, player advantage will be more accurately approximated by valuing the maximum unit as the most frequent high unit in relation to the average unit.

The table shown is particularly interesting from the point of view of the effect of deck penetration. Where less decks are dealt out a card counter must increase his/her unit spread to achieve the same percentage profit. In doing so the counter is at greater risk of succumbing to the effects of statistical variance and thus may incur severe losses. If the player does not have enough funds available to sustain such losses then obviously that player no longer poses a threat to the casino. To be unable to withstand a negative fluctuation of three standard deviations would be neither investing or speculating, but gambling. Standard deviation must always be calculated according to the specific circumstances of average betting unit and number of hands. Displayed below is a calculation of percent gain per hand for an eight deck Blackjack game with Adelaide Casino Rules and a 50% penetration level. Also shown is the expected win and standard deviation given the level of betting shown:-

Total variance of two boxes being played simultaneously 3.6.

Whilst the win per hour and percent gain per hand appear favorable, the potential losses that may be incurred short term are severe. Any card counter playing under these conditions and using this betting pattern must be able to sustain a $15,000 loss in one session otherwise they are in fact gambling. Most genuine authorities on card counting do not recommend playing in any eight deck game let alone one which is cut to the 50% level. However, if this is the only game available and the player has a large bankroll then it is still possible for the player in the long term to achieve a reasonable profit. Also, if the card counter can play in a reasonable percentage of games with greater levels of penetration, then a much greater potential gain is achievable (refer sensitivity analysis).

Comment 
It is possible for a player utilising a card counting system to achieve a net positive expectation in the game of Blackjack as it is played in the Adelaide Casino. To quantify the potential gain it is necessary to establish the values of specific variables. The most important of which are deck penetration, unit spread and standard deviation. Games with high levels of deck penetration offer the card counter the greatest potential gain and at the same time reduce the bankroll requirement for these players.